NFL Card
Five handicappers. One page per game. Here’s what each one is checking.
H1 – The Formula
I look at the two teams as complete units. I take the difference in their net ratings, add the home-field bump, and compare that projected margin to the line. If the gap is at least 2.5 points, I have a number. If the data isn’t there, I say so and move on. No stories, just the math.
H2 – Next Man Up
I price the players who are out. A starting quarterback is 1.5 points. Everyone else has a value too. Once those drops are subtracted, I look at what’s left. If the remainder is still 1.5 points or more, the side is live. If the starter hasn’t even been named, I still price the expected backup and keep the game. The roster changes; the rule doesn’t.
H3 – Letdown Watch
I only care about the schedule. I look for the spots that have shown up in 70 or more games across at least three seasons and eight teams. If the game fits one of those spots, I note it. If it doesn’t, I stay quiet. No opinions about effort or motivation—just the pattern the numbers have already shown.
H4 – Follow The Money
I watch the line after the prior weekend’s games are finished. A move of a point or more gets my attention. A bets-versus-money split of 15 points or more from one source at one time does too. If neither happens, or the percentages aren’t published, I have nothing. I don’t guess where the money is; I only report what is already on the board.
H5 – In The Trenches
I stay on the ground. I measure the yards-per-carry gap and the sack-rate gap. Half a yard per carry or a 5-point difference in sack rate is enough. Anything smaller is noise. I don’t care who the quarterback is or what the line has done. If the trenches don’t show a clear gap, I pass.
How the predicted score is made
The predicted final score on every game is the even average of the five handicapper projections. Each handicapper produces its own whole-number score from the inputs it already uses. Those five scores are weighted equally. The home points are averaged and rounded to the nearest whole number; the away points are averaged and rounded the same way. The two rounded numbers are the official predicted score. The total is their sum. If a handicapper has no projection yet, it is left out and the rest are still weighted equally among themselves. The Cover Writer then reads the covering side and the over/under from this averaged score against the current line.